Emerging markets to continue their inexorable connections growth

By the end of 2014 Ovum forecasts 6.42 billion connections, up 59 percent from 2008, and a CAGR of eight percent. However, potential for growth will remain as global penetration will be 89 percent in 2014, with 69 percent in Africa and 78 percent in Asia-Pacific.

Elsewhere mobile penetration will reach almost 100 percent or more, but further growth will still be possible from multiple SIM ownership in heavily prepaid markets or through uptake of data-centric devices. As such, population penetration is ceasing to be a useful indicator.

China and India will dominate connections and will account for 30 percent of total worldwide connections by 2014. However, the countries' penetration rates will be just 76 percent and 69 percent respectively by 2014. Massive population growth will continue to fuel mobile demand as new, unconnected users join the market.

The enormous growth in connections has financial implications for mobile operators as they are expected to grow by 59 percent from 2008 to 2014, while revenues grow by 33%. Furthermore, mobile outgoing minutes of usage are set to rise 109 percent between 2008 and 2014, but voice revenues will rise just 15 percent.

"Both comparisons highlight the influx of ever-lower ARPU customers from emerging markets and price erosion in mature markets, even for data services. Therefore, efficient networks, enabling competitive pricing, will be critical in both highly saturated mature markets and low-ARPU emerging markets", explains Hartley.